Post by sirrogermoore on Jun 20, 2016 16:13:52 GMT
The most popular, if not the best, race of the cycling calendar is soon upon us once more as the Tour de France 2016 approaches. This first of a series of blogs throughout the Tour by me is a preview to set the scene for the race, look over the parcours and nail my colours to the mast regarding the contenders and the final podium. First I turn my attentions to the parcours.
The Course
The course this year is a very all round one and I think it has been very cleverly put together, especially if one has the GC in mind and the possible contenders for it. I think it promises to deliver a thrilling race even though we must always remember that riders make the race and not the course. The organisers, the ASO, say that there are 9 flat stages, 1 hilly stage, 9 mountain stages (4 of which have a mountain top finish) and 2 individual time trials. You can see the course profiles HERE. Let's explore them in a bit more detail.
Stage 1 is a flat stage and will ensure that a sprinter wears the first yellow jersey of the Tour de France 2016. They race from Mont St Michel, scene of the ITT finish in the 2013 Tour, to Utah Beach. But the sprinter that wins stage 1 is not likely to hold onto the jersey very long as with stage 2 the organisers have been cruel sticking in a puncheurs finish at Cherbourg En-Cotentin. This compromises a 1.9km climb with a short section at 14% followed by a short descent and then a further drag up to the line. This is Peter Sagan, Philippe Gilbert and Michael Matthews territory. Indeed, if sagan has performed well in the previous days sprint he could even be wearing yellow after this.
Stage 3 begins the long drag south for the Tour towards the Pyrenees and they have a long way to go. This stage is 223.5kms and offers no real difficulties besides the generally rolling terrain and whatever the weather can throw up. This should be a sprinter's stage or possibly a breakaway. Stage 4, at 237.5kms, is not dissimilar so here we have two days for sprinters teams and potential breakaway contenders to try and bag a stage.
On stage 5 the terrain changes again. We still have 216kms to cover but the end of the stage becomes bumpy and pure sprinters will be discarded by the two Cat 2 climbs back-ended onto the stage. This will leave punchy riders with the opportunity to try for the line and GC contenders to nervously watch each other. Stage 6 is 190.5kms and lumpy but nothing too serious. It looks like a breakaway stage to me but the sprinter's teams will be hoping to control things before we hit the Pyrenees the next day.
With stage 7 we enter the Pyrenees and the GC battle can commence in earnest. The stage is short at 162.5kms and contains one major test, the Col d'Aspin, which is a fairly regular climb of 12kms at 6.5%. At the summit we have just over 7kms to the line which is sure to make for furious and nervous descending before the little kick up at the line itself. Stage 8 takes us over some treasured Pyrenean peaks such as the Tourmalet and Peyresourde. At 184kms this promises to be a tough day of climbing over 4 classified peaks but as it does not have a mountain top finish it is questionable if it will be decisive. A breakaway winner remains a good possibility here. Both stages 7+8, I feel, are also good ones with an attacking Alberto Contador in mind and could put Froome and Quintana on the back foot.
Stage 9 I expect to be one of the decisive stages of the race. It takes place entirely outside France, running from Vielha Val d'Arran in Spain to Arcalis in Andorra. At 184.5kms its not overly short and the five classified peaks, including the HC classified finish at Arcalis itself, are sure to test. Of the last 46kms at least 30kms is climbing. This is the first stage I expect defending champion Chris Froome to attack on as it suits his previous Tour-winning method of going hard out to win the first mountain top stage. It promises to be quite a show.
The organisers have been cruel again once stage 10 comes around. This is the first stage after the first rest day and the riders, not all of whom do so well after a rest day, will be greeted by a stage that begins with 22.6kms of climbing over the cat 1 Port d'Envalira. That is sure to make a few regret waking up. But if they make it to the top a relatively benign stage follows. A cat 3 climb is mischieviously inserted towards the end of the stage to encourage an attack and discourage any sprinters. Stage 11 is a transition stage from Carcassonne to Montpellier. Twists and turns aside, this should be a straight up sprint finish.
And so we come to Bastille Day and stage 12. This, again, is to my mind a pivotol stage in GC terms: the climb of Mont Ventoux. Once more this should be a set piece day as the 185kms of the day are covered efficiently until we hit the slopes of the Giant of Provence. This mountain lives long in the memory and was recently brought to mind once more as it was used in the 2013 Tour with Chris Froome winning the day and beating most of his challengers by considerable time margins. That day Nairo Quintana went from a very long way out and, subsequently, it may be argued that he went far too soon. Will he have learned his lesson this time around? We shall see. By the finish of this stage a clear GC pecking order will be in place for the race going forward as the gaps are sure to be significant. Certainly, we will know who isn't going to win the Tour de France.
The organisers have delivered something of a double whammy here in the middle of the second week of the Tour which has previously been the part of the Tour that defending champion, Chris Froome, is strongest. After the set piece stage of Mont Ventoux we have a 37.5km ITT over mixed terrain that begins and ends on moderate climbs. It remains to be seen just how the Ventoux has affected the riders but another full gas effort will be required here if GC contenders are not to give themselves too much to do in the final week of the race. After this, stage 14 is another bumpy stage of no real consequence for the overall in which the GC boys will be taking a rest from their recent efforts and I would expect a breakaway win here. Stage 15 from Bourg-En-Bresse to Culoz, however, is a brute of a stage. Short at 159kms, it has a razortooth profile which will force the GC boys to work all day and the Grand Colombier and Lacets du Grand Colombier climbs, HC and Cat 1 classified, will be tests in their own right. If this stage is pushed hard by one team or another casualties are sure to follow. It will be welcome, then, that stage 16 seems a fairly trouble free ride across the border into the Swiss capital, Berne. The GC boys will again sit back and let someone else take over. A little kick in the last 2kms before the line in Berne perhaps suggests that no pure sprinter will win today.
And so we pass over the second rest day, and the inevitable dropouts, and head into the deciding stages of this years Tour. Stage 17 is a pure climber's stage and, if you ask me, the one that, out of all of them this year, Nairo Quintana is bound to win. It ends with two killer climbs of the Col de la Forclaz and the dam road to Finhaut-Emosson which is almost at 2,000 meters. These climbs are flat out and steep and this is where I expect to see the little Colombian do his thing. By this stage there is no more time to save something back. It will be all out war on the climb up to the Swiss dam.
And that may prove to be a problem the next day when the organisers, yet again, pair a decisive climbing stage with an ITT. This time we have an uphill time trial of 17kms in length including a section of 2.5kms at 9.4% just after 5kms into the stage. Its another example of how the organisers have thought about the route and presented something that's not either all just about climbing or just about time trials. This time trial, coming late in the race and after what I consider to be the third decisive stage of the Tour the day before, is sure to shell out casualties once more. Podium placings will once more be sifted here.
We hit the final two mountain stages of the Tour with stages 19 and 20. Stage 19 ends on the climb of Le Bettex which has recently been used in the Dauphine in 2015. Chris Froome won that day but he will probably find it much harder here after a long, hard Tour. A peculiarity of this year's Tour is that this stage is the last with a mountain top finish. Stage 20 finishes on a downhill run into Morzine. So if anyone is desperate to claw back or gain even more time this is probably going to be the prime place to do it. Expect fireworks again up the steep climb of Le Bettex. The final climb of the Tour on stage 20, which is sure to be a brisk 146.5kms, is the Col de Joux Plane which hits double digits averages towards the top of its 11.6kms length. But there follows a descent thereafter into Morzine as mentioned. Will there be a good climber with a fast descent like Alberto Contador still in the GC hunt to take advantage of this at this point?
Stage 21 runs from Chantilly to the Champs Elysee and will crown our champion for this year being the traditional coronation stage with a sprint finish that the Tour now annually delivers. And that is my run down on this years parcours.
The Contenders
I do not intend here to discuss the prospects of every rider nor even of riders who you may think are contenders. I intend to discuss the merits of those I consider to be realistic contenders for the Tour de France 2016. I think this comes down to Chris Froome, who I regard as the pre-race favourite, Nairo Quintana, Alberto Contador and Fabio Aru. These are all previous grand tour winners. Richie Porte, Tejay van Garderen, Thibaut Pinot, Romain Bardet and others are, consequently, outsiders (including 4 time grand tour winner Vincenzo Nibali who is probably in the race as a pre-Olympic warm up) and if you want to make a case for them you have to say why they will beat 4 grand tour winners as well as everyone else too. This is a hard case to make since this year's field is stacked with pretty much every major stage race rider in pro cycling. The winner will have a good shout for saying that he is currently the best grand tour rider in the world.
I take my four contenders in reverse order to how I named them and so begin with Aru. He won the Vuelta last year in quite impressive style after failing to beat Contador at the Giro. But there remain doubts about this rider who is still young at only 25 (he will be 26 on July 3rd). At times in last year's Giro he seemed fragile and he can certainly have off days. In a field of this class even one bad day will probably prove fatal so this is something to consider when asking ourselves about his chances. Added to this, his form this year has not been good and we should not let his recent breakaway win at the Dauphine fool us about that. He was, in general, well off the pace. Can he suddenly find new form and the top step in Paris? I find it unlikely. A bid for glory, a falling away and a stage win are probably more realistic likelihoods for the Italian's first ever Tour de France.
Alberto Contador is the best stage racer still racing his bike. His official tally of 7 grand tour wins is the most in the race and the Spaniard has been animated again this season winning in the Basque Country earlier in the year and making game efforts at Paris-Nice, the Algarve and in Catalunya for more podiums. Contador won the Giro in 2015 and the Vuelta in 2014 so is still capable of landing the top step of a grand tour podium. However, the recent Dauphine, a race he has never won, perhaps suggested worrying times ahead for El Pistolero. On stage 5 he saw Chris Froome and Richie Porte both head up the road without him and, although animated, he could make no further impact on the race. Given that this is likely to be the best grand tour field that any rider has raced against in a number of years we need to ask if Contador still has what it takes to come out on top. In both recent Tours he completed, in 2013 and 2015, he was distanced by Froome and Quintana. In my view, he will be again. But what we do know is he will never give up and he will likely attack on stages and in places we do not expect.
Nairo Quintana is regarded by many as the best climber in the peloton. In his career to date he has piled up a number of stage race wins and a grand tour in the Giro 2014. Two second places behind Froome in the Tour make his case for being a serious contender for the race. Quintana has won Catalunya, Romandie and Route du Sud this year and is no doubt on a high as he heads into his 3rd Tour de France as a serious contender for the title. The question that remains to be asked is if he is still improving or if he is going to once more be stuck behind Froome. I think this is not so much a question of ability as of tactics. In both previous Tours where he was bested by Froome there were tactical issues with his race and the complication of Alejandro Valverde's ambitions within the Movistar team. This year, however, it seems to be all for Quintana. It remains to be seen if this proves a help and a further impetus to his title ambitions. There is no doubt he has the ability and a Quintana win would not be a surprise at all. He is a superb climber and a good time triallist, not least considering his lack of kilos. But he sometimes has a tendency to attack too soon with his ride on Ventoux in 2013 being a prime example of this. Will he continue to do this and will it bite him once more or will he allow what is sure to be a strong Movistar team to backstop him to better positions from which to exploit his undoubted talents? Fortune favours the brave they say but it also rewards patient planning and efficient execution.
My favourite for the race is Chris Froome and this is for solid cycling reasons. For starters, he is the defending champion and has beaten most people here before (and in the Tour). Secondly, he is likely to have the strongest team, at least on paper. Sky critics always give a backhanded compliment to his team when they criticize its methods and talk about the "Sky train". Well, if it delivers then it does its job! Third, Froome has come into good form, beating many of his Tour rivals in the recent Dauphine. Fourth, he has raced lightly with the intention of setting all his season goals from the Tour onwards. Will this mean he has more in reserve compared to recent years and will he therefore be able to produce a more complete Tour performance? Five, although the route has some traps for Froome such as the Pyrenees before Arcalis and the three mountain stages in week 3, it still has two crucial mountain days in the second week which is something he has loved so well in recent Tour victories. Stages 9 and 12, Arcalis and Ventoux, are perfect "Froome stages" and if they go according to plan (I expect him to attack both days with the intention of creating decisive time gaps) it could be back to Froome defending his lead to victory as we have seen in previous years. Ask any grand tour winner and they will tell you that defending is much easier than having to attack. But Froome has done this before and so, as defending champion, I see Froome as the man to beat, especially if stages 9 and 12 go as I imagine he will be hoping.
How They Win
Here's my view on how my main contenders win the Tour 2016.
Contador wins by attacking in the Pyrenees and getting the lead. He can then shadow Froome and Quintana and share out his efforts as necessary. If Contador has to chase the lead he's done as Tinkoff don't have many weapons and certainly not enough to constrain the might of Sky, Movistar and Astana.
Aru wins this Tour by not making any mistakes and staying in the running until stages 19 and 20. If he is still there by then he will be as dangerous as anyone in a couple of do or die stages in the mountains.
Quintana wins this race by not being distanced by Froome again in the second week. It is crucial for his bid, which is sure to come on strong in week 3, that he still has something to fight for by then. If he does this Tour could be decided by seconds. If he doesn't then it may be that Froome can ride within himself with a cushion.
Froome retains his Tour title by doing exactly as he's done before - getting a respectable lead he can defend. As I've said, this parcours probably gives him stages he can do that if he's up to the job and others falter. But Froome will need to be solid throughout the second half of the race if he is to be on the top step in Paris and that means on the descents as much as when the road goes up.
The Rest
Of course, in a bike race nothing is for sure. And so it may be none of my chosen riders who mount the top step in Paris. But these four, realistically, are the most likely contenders. Others are as yet unproven at this level or people who have failed before. I don't see a reason to give them a chance now and its up to them to prove me wrong. This is the best Tour field for years. No ordinary rider will win.
A brief word about the Green Jersey competition. This, barring miracles, will be won yet again by Peter Sagan. He is simply the most all-round rider for this contest, able to compete in sprints but also go out on mountain stages to contest the intermediate sprints too. He might not win a stage but he will win the jersey.
My pick for the young rider's jersey is Julian Alaphilippe who has improved a lot this year in stage races, taking the Tour of California overall and coming 6th in the Dauphine. Should he falter he will still be a threat in a breakaway or in punchy stage finishes as his 2nd in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Fleche Wallonne this year attest. He could, for example, nab yellow on stage 2 with a bit of luck. If he does well he could bag a stage and a jersey from the Tour.
So these are my thoughts to generally preview this year's Tour. Discuss them in the comments below with respect and reasoning!
The Course
The course this year is a very all round one and I think it has been very cleverly put together, especially if one has the GC in mind and the possible contenders for it. I think it promises to deliver a thrilling race even though we must always remember that riders make the race and not the course. The organisers, the ASO, say that there are 9 flat stages, 1 hilly stage, 9 mountain stages (4 of which have a mountain top finish) and 2 individual time trials. You can see the course profiles HERE. Let's explore them in a bit more detail.
Stage 1 is a flat stage and will ensure that a sprinter wears the first yellow jersey of the Tour de France 2016. They race from Mont St Michel, scene of the ITT finish in the 2013 Tour, to Utah Beach. But the sprinter that wins stage 1 is not likely to hold onto the jersey very long as with stage 2 the organisers have been cruel sticking in a puncheurs finish at Cherbourg En-Cotentin. This compromises a 1.9km climb with a short section at 14% followed by a short descent and then a further drag up to the line. This is Peter Sagan, Philippe Gilbert and Michael Matthews territory. Indeed, if sagan has performed well in the previous days sprint he could even be wearing yellow after this.
Stage 3 begins the long drag south for the Tour towards the Pyrenees and they have a long way to go. This stage is 223.5kms and offers no real difficulties besides the generally rolling terrain and whatever the weather can throw up. This should be a sprinter's stage or possibly a breakaway. Stage 4, at 237.5kms, is not dissimilar so here we have two days for sprinters teams and potential breakaway contenders to try and bag a stage.
On stage 5 the terrain changes again. We still have 216kms to cover but the end of the stage becomes bumpy and pure sprinters will be discarded by the two Cat 2 climbs back-ended onto the stage. This will leave punchy riders with the opportunity to try for the line and GC contenders to nervously watch each other. Stage 6 is 190.5kms and lumpy but nothing too serious. It looks like a breakaway stage to me but the sprinter's teams will be hoping to control things before we hit the Pyrenees the next day.
With stage 7 we enter the Pyrenees and the GC battle can commence in earnest. The stage is short at 162.5kms and contains one major test, the Col d'Aspin, which is a fairly regular climb of 12kms at 6.5%. At the summit we have just over 7kms to the line which is sure to make for furious and nervous descending before the little kick up at the line itself. Stage 8 takes us over some treasured Pyrenean peaks such as the Tourmalet and Peyresourde. At 184kms this promises to be a tough day of climbing over 4 classified peaks but as it does not have a mountain top finish it is questionable if it will be decisive. A breakaway winner remains a good possibility here. Both stages 7+8, I feel, are also good ones with an attacking Alberto Contador in mind and could put Froome and Quintana on the back foot.
Stage 9 I expect to be one of the decisive stages of the race. It takes place entirely outside France, running from Vielha Val d'Arran in Spain to Arcalis in Andorra. At 184.5kms its not overly short and the five classified peaks, including the HC classified finish at Arcalis itself, are sure to test. Of the last 46kms at least 30kms is climbing. This is the first stage I expect defending champion Chris Froome to attack on as it suits his previous Tour-winning method of going hard out to win the first mountain top stage. It promises to be quite a show.
The organisers have been cruel again once stage 10 comes around. This is the first stage after the first rest day and the riders, not all of whom do so well after a rest day, will be greeted by a stage that begins with 22.6kms of climbing over the cat 1 Port d'Envalira. That is sure to make a few regret waking up. But if they make it to the top a relatively benign stage follows. A cat 3 climb is mischieviously inserted towards the end of the stage to encourage an attack and discourage any sprinters. Stage 11 is a transition stage from Carcassonne to Montpellier. Twists and turns aside, this should be a straight up sprint finish.
And so we come to Bastille Day and stage 12. This, again, is to my mind a pivotol stage in GC terms: the climb of Mont Ventoux. Once more this should be a set piece day as the 185kms of the day are covered efficiently until we hit the slopes of the Giant of Provence. This mountain lives long in the memory and was recently brought to mind once more as it was used in the 2013 Tour with Chris Froome winning the day and beating most of his challengers by considerable time margins. That day Nairo Quintana went from a very long way out and, subsequently, it may be argued that he went far too soon. Will he have learned his lesson this time around? We shall see. By the finish of this stage a clear GC pecking order will be in place for the race going forward as the gaps are sure to be significant. Certainly, we will know who isn't going to win the Tour de France.
The organisers have delivered something of a double whammy here in the middle of the second week of the Tour which has previously been the part of the Tour that defending champion, Chris Froome, is strongest. After the set piece stage of Mont Ventoux we have a 37.5km ITT over mixed terrain that begins and ends on moderate climbs. It remains to be seen just how the Ventoux has affected the riders but another full gas effort will be required here if GC contenders are not to give themselves too much to do in the final week of the race. After this, stage 14 is another bumpy stage of no real consequence for the overall in which the GC boys will be taking a rest from their recent efforts and I would expect a breakaway win here. Stage 15 from Bourg-En-Bresse to Culoz, however, is a brute of a stage. Short at 159kms, it has a razortooth profile which will force the GC boys to work all day and the Grand Colombier and Lacets du Grand Colombier climbs, HC and Cat 1 classified, will be tests in their own right. If this stage is pushed hard by one team or another casualties are sure to follow. It will be welcome, then, that stage 16 seems a fairly trouble free ride across the border into the Swiss capital, Berne. The GC boys will again sit back and let someone else take over. A little kick in the last 2kms before the line in Berne perhaps suggests that no pure sprinter will win today.
And so we pass over the second rest day, and the inevitable dropouts, and head into the deciding stages of this years Tour. Stage 17 is a pure climber's stage and, if you ask me, the one that, out of all of them this year, Nairo Quintana is bound to win. It ends with two killer climbs of the Col de la Forclaz and the dam road to Finhaut-Emosson which is almost at 2,000 meters. These climbs are flat out and steep and this is where I expect to see the little Colombian do his thing. By this stage there is no more time to save something back. It will be all out war on the climb up to the Swiss dam.
And that may prove to be a problem the next day when the organisers, yet again, pair a decisive climbing stage with an ITT. This time we have an uphill time trial of 17kms in length including a section of 2.5kms at 9.4% just after 5kms into the stage. Its another example of how the organisers have thought about the route and presented something that's not either all just about climbing or just about time trials. This time trial, coming late in the race and after what I consider to be the third decisive stage of the Tour the day before, is sure to shell out casualties once more. Podium placings will once more be sifted here.
We hit the final two mountain stages of the Tour with stages 19 and 20. Stage 19 ends on the climb of Le Bettex which has recently been used in the Dauphine in 2015. Chris Froome won that day but he will probably find it much harder here after a long, hard Tour. A peculiarity of this year's Tour is that this stage is the last with a mountain top finish. Stage 20 finishes on a downhill run into Morzine. So if anyone is desperate to claw back or gain even more time this is probably going to be the prime place to do it. Expect fireworks again up the steep climb of Le Bettex. The final climb of the Tour on stage 20, which is sure to be a brisk 146.5kms, is the Col de Joux Plane which hits double digits averages towards the top of its 11.6kms length. But there follows a descent thereafter into Morzine as mentioned. Will there be a good climber with a fast descent like Alberto Contador still in the GC hunt to take advantage of this at this point?
Stage 21 runs from Chantilly to the Champs Elysee and will crown our champion for this year being the traditional coronation stage with a sprint finish that the Tour now annually delivers. And that is my run down on this years parcours.
The Contenders
I do not intend here to discuss the prospects of every rider nor even of riders who you may think are contenders. I intend to discuss the merits of those I consider to be realistic contenders for the Tour de France 2016. I think this comes down to Chris Froome, who I regard as the pre-race favourite, Nairo Quintana, Alberto Contador and Fabio Aru. These are all previous grand tour winners. Richie Porte, Tejay van Garderen, Thibaut Pinot, Romain Bardet and others are, consequently, outsiders (including 4 time grand tour winner Vincenzo Nibali who is probably in the race as a pre-Olympic warm up) and if you want to make a case for them you have to say why they will beat 4 grand tour winners as well as everyone else too. This is a hard case to make since this year's field is stacked with pretty much every major stage race rider in pro cycling. The winner will have a good shout for saying that he is currently the best grand tour rider in the world.
I take my four contenders in reverse order to how I named them and so begin with Aru. He won the Vuelta last year in quite impressive style after failing to beat Contador at the Giro. But there remain doubts about this rider who is still young at only 25 (he will be 26 on July 3rd). At times in last year's Giro he seemed fragile and he can certainly have off days. In a field of this class even one bad day will probably prove fatal so this is something to consider when asking ourselves about his chances. Added to this, his form this year has not been good and we should not let his recent breakaway win at the Dauphine fool us about that. He was, in general, well off the pace. Can he suddenly find new form and the top step in Paris? I find it unlikely. A bid for glory, a falling away and a stage win are probably more realistic likelihoods for the Italian's first ever Tour de France.
Alberto Contador is the best stage racer still racing his bike. His official tally of 7 grand tour wins is the most in the race and the Spaniard has been animated again this season winning in the Basque Country earlier in the year and making game efforts at Paris-Nice, the Algarve and in Catalunya for more podiums. Contador won the Giro in 2015 and the Vuelta in 2014 so is still capable of landing the top step of a grand tour podium. However, the recent Dauphine, a race he has never won, perhaps suggested worrying times ahead for El Pistolero. On stage 5 he saw Chris Froome and Richie Porte both head up the road without him and, although animated, he could make no further impact on the race. Given that this is likely to be the best grand tour field that any rider has raced against in a number of years we need to ask if Contador still has what it takes to come out on top. In both recent Tours he completed, in 2013 and 2015, he was distanced by Froome and Quintana. In my view, he will be again. But what we do know is he will never give up and he will likely attack on stages and in places we do not expect.
Nairo Quintana is regarded by many as the best climber in the peloton. In his career to date he has piled up a number of stage race wins and a grand tour in the Giro 2014. Two second places behind Froome in the Tour make his case for being a serious contender for the race. Quintana has won Catalunya, Romandie and Route du Sud this year and is no doubt on a high as he heads into his 3rd Tour de France as a serious contender for the title. The question that remains to be asked is if he is still improving or if he is going to once more be stuck behind Froome. I think this is not so much a question of ability as of tactics. In both previous Tours where he was bested by Froome there were tactical issues with his race and the complication of Alejandro Valverde's ambitions within the Movistar team. This year, however, it seems to be all for Quintana. It remains to be seen if this proves a help and a further impetus to his title ambitions. There is no doubt he has the ability and a Quintana win would not be a surprise at all. He is a superb climber and a good time triallist, not least considering his lack of kilos. But he sometimes has a tendency to attack too soon with his ride on Ventoux in 2013 being a prime example of this. Will he continue to do this and will it bite him once more or will he allow what is sure to be a strong Movistar team to backstop him to better positions from which to exploit his undoubted talents? Fortune favours the brave they say but it also rewards patient planning and efficient execution.
My favourite for the race is Chris Froome and this is for solid cycling reasons. For starters, he is the defending champion and has beaten most people here before (and in the Tour). Secondly, he is likely to have the strongest team, at least on paper. Sky critics always give a backhanded compliment to his team when they criticize its methods and talk about the "Sky train". Well, if it delivers then it does its job! Third, Froome has come into good form, beating many of his Tour rivals in the recent Dauphine. Fourth, he has raced lightly with the intention of setting all his season goals from the Tour onwards. Will this mean he has more in reserve compared to recent years and will he therefore be able to produce a more complete Tour performance? Five, although the route has some traps for Froome such as the Pyrenees before Arcalis and the three mountain stages in week 3, it still has two crucial mountain days in the second week which is something he has loved so well in recent Tour victories. Stages 9 and 12, Arcalis and Ventoux, are perfect "Froome stages" and if they go according to plan (I expect him to attack both days with the intention of creating decisive time gaps) it could be back to Froome defending his lead to victory as we have seen in previous years. Ask any grand tour winner and they will tell you that defending is much easier than having to attack. But Froome has done this before and so, as defending champion, I see Froome as the man to beat, especially if stages 9 and 12 go as I imagine he will be hoping.
How They Win
Here's my view on how my main contenders win the Tour 2016.
Contador wins by attacking in the Pyrenees and getting the lead. He can then shadow Froome and Quintana and share out his efforts as necessary. If Contador has to chase the lead he's done as Tinkoff don't have many weapons and certainly not enough to constrain the might of Sky, Movistar and Astana.
Aru wins this Tour by not making any mistakes and staying in the running until stages 19 and 20. If he is still there by then he will be as dangerous as anyone in a couple of do or die stages in the mountains.
Quintana wins this race by not being distanced by Froome again in the second week. It is crucial for his bid, which is sure to come on strong in week 3, that he still has something to fight for by then. If he does this Tour could be decided by seconds. If he doesn't then it may be that Froome can ride within himself with a cushion.
Froome retains his Tour title by doing exactly as he's done before - getting a respectable lead he can defend. As I've said, this parcours probably gives him stages he can do that if he's up to the job and others falter. But Froome will need to be solid throughout the second half of the race if he is to be on the top step in Paris and that means on the descents as much as when the road goes up.
The Rest
Of course, in a bike race nothing is for sure. And so it may be none of my chosen riders who mount the top step in Paris. But these four, realistically, are the most likely contenders. Others are as yet unproven at this level or people who have failed before. I don't see a reason to give them a chance now and its up to them to prove me wrong. This is the best Tour field for years. No ordinary rider will win.
A brief word about the Green Jersey competition. This, barring miracles, will be won yet again by Peter Sagan. He is simply the most all-round rider for this contest, able to compete in sprints but also go out on mountain stages to contest the intermediate sprints too. He might not win a stage but he will win the jersey.
My pick for the young rider's jersey is Julian Alaphilippe who has improved a lot this year in stage races, taking the Tour of California overall and coming 6th in the Dauphine. Should he falter he will still be a threat in a breakaway or in punchy stage finishes as his 2nd in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Fleche Wallonne this year attest. He could, for example, nab yellow on stage 2 with a bit of luck. If he does well he could bag a stage and a jersey from the Tour.
So these are my thoughts to generally preview this year's Tour. Discuss them in the comments below with respect and reasoning!
