Post by sirrogermoore on Jul 11, 2016 9:48:23 GMT
And so the first 9 days of the Tour de France 2016 are done. Chris Froome sits atop the standings with a 16 second lead over fellow Brit Adam Yates with Dan Martin of Ireland 19 seconds back in third place. Nairo Quintana is fourth at 23 seconds and after that a bunch of riders sit around three quarters to a full minute back of the defending champion. In addition, former two time champion Alberto Contador is out of the race, a victim of crashes and illness. In this rest day report I intend to run the rule over what we have seen so far and talk a little bit about what is to come.
The move of the race so far, that affects the GC in any case, came on stage 8 into Bagneres de Luchon when Chris Froome stole over the top of the Peyresourde, the final climb of the day, and then just kept riding. The peloton were unprepared and caught napping. Ultimately Froome's gap may only have been 13 seconds at the line (to which he got a winner's bonus of 10 seconds added) but it showed intent on his part and created the gap which gives him the yellow jersey that others must now take from him. It needs to be remembered that so far in Froome's Tour De France career he has never lost the yellow jersey once he gained it. His closest rival in this race, so the pundits tell us, is Nairo Quintana. Quintana himself has never yet held the yellow jersey at all. But it is nevertheless right to be noted that this Tour is not like previous other Tours that have involved Froome, a man who has never finished the Tour lower than 2nd (and that was only because his team mate Wiggins was the designated leader). So what's the difference here?
I believe the main difference this time round is the course. Put simply, this course has been designed so as not to see the crucial killer gain that Froome was able to make previously. We have had three proper mountain stages so far, all in the Pyrenees. But its arguable that none of them were designed to be decisive. Christian Prudhomme, the ASO director of the race, has himself said in the last couple of days that Froome caught them all out with his attack on stage 8. They expected him to attack uphill like at Ax 3 Domaines or La Pierre St Martin in previous years. Instead, he attacked on a descent. But that comment is revealing because the ASO did not put such a climbing finish in the early part of this year's race. Arcalis, the Andorran finish of stage 9, is unlike those other climbs being both longer and shallower. Froome has not really had the terrain to do what he did before as yet. This is partly, we must acknowledge, by the ASO's design. In this context its entirely reasonable that the standings look different to former years. Its been designed to be more of a slow burning race and so the time gaps are smaller as we might expect.
As things stand, I don't think that Froome or Quintana will be overly concerned. Froome has yellow and his Sky team have control of the race which is how they like to play it. Quintana is within touching distance and will expect to get stronger the longer things go on. But this is a risky strategy from the Colombian who cannot rely on things being as they have been before. As already noted, the course is different this year. In the coming week we will have the properly decisive climb of Mont Ventoux and a 37kms time trial which will put further gaps between our contenders. And this is to ignore the possibility for a few stolen seconds here and there or something unforeseen. If Quintana and Movistar are really gambling everything on a stellar climbing performance in the Alps then it is a risk. Why, we might ask, did Quintana not attack on Arcalis yesterday? Was he able to? He had men in front of him but they weren't used. Will he come to regret not using opportunities like this? In the Tour de France the outcome is never known and must always be earned. We can be sure that Froome will look to build his lead across stages 12 and 13 and gaps that are currently seconds will grow larger between all the contenders.
And what of these contenders? After a strong performance in the first 9 days, and some attacks on Arcalis, Dan Martin is quoted as saying he is not a contender and that he regards Quintana and Froome as those who will battle for the title. Nevertheless, I think that Martin has been looking good recently and the third podium spot remains a realistic prospect for him. Britain's Adam Yates, white jersey wearer, is simply happy to be at the front and challenging. He really has nothing to lose and his attacking style is to be applauded but we should expect him to drop over time. Purito Rodriguez, fifth currently, is a terrible time triallist who is sure to accumulate losses against the big two. But he may yet have a stage win in him. Other realistic contenders near the top of the standings are Bardet, Mollema, Meintjes, Valverde, van Garderen and Aru. These guys are already around a minute back with bigger tests to come. Its reasonable to suggest that they will continue bleeding time against the bigger names. Crucially, I see all of these riders losing time in the time trial of stage 13, certainly to Froome and probably to Quintana as well. They will battle it out for the top ten placings. As for others like Barguil, Pinot and Porte, its quite likely that their ambitions are already done. Porte will hope to hold station and watch other riders who are currently ahead of him fall back behind him. As for the Frenchmen, they'd be better having a go for polka dots instead.
The course in the second phase of the race is worth mentioning at this point. Its split between GC relevant stages such as stages 12 and 13 and what those same contenders would hope are more benign, resting stages where others can have breakaway fun or contest a sprint. As already stated, the key stages here are 12 and 13, the mountain test of Ventoux which will widen cracks of time into gaping chasms, and the time trial in the Ardeche which, I think, will set in stone the possibilities for the rest of the race. Froome and Quintana, I think its quite likely, will be the top two by this point and it will become a race that is a simple head to head between the two times Tour winner and the former Giro winner from Colombia. But a note of caution here because the ASO have thrown a beast of a stage into the mix before we ride into Berne on stage 16. Stage 15 goes from Bourg-en-Bresse to Culoz over 6 classified climbs including the Hors categorie Grand Colombier. This will be a day similar to stage 8 in the Pyrenees in that it will be a test of attrition where controlling the race will be increasingly difficult with 15 days of racing in the legs. This stage remains a possible opportunity for someone to trip up if concentration is not at its maximum. But it will also rely on someone with balls of steel making an attack. As we have seen in the past, Nairo Quintana is not always that man. If he wants to win this race it is a stage like this where is has to be prepared to try and win the race. We can be sure that Chris Froome will be very happy if the Colombian just sits and follows again.
A brief look at other areas of the race. On the sprinting front it has mostly been about one man: Mark Cavendish. Cav was thought to have suffered in recent years as others got to his level and even beyond it. But this year he has proved that there's still life in the old dog yet with 3 sprint wins to date and a yellow jersey to complete his collection of leader's jerseys in the grand tours. The only other sprinter with a win is Marcel Kittel. Sagan has been sniffing around as expected on his way to what is sure to be another green jersey win but others such as Andre Greipel have been missing in action. Bryan Coquard has been making a nuisance of himself but, as yet, without success. Should Cav continue to stay in the race to Paris, and he should because on this evidence he has a chance of more wins on his way to Eddy Merckx's record of 34 Tour stage wins, then he will remain a favourite for the proper sprinter's stages and may yet get his fifth win on the Champs Elysees.
The mountain jersey looks to be a contest between Thibau Pinot, a man with shattered GC ambitions, and Rafal Majka, a former winner of the competition. Pinot has looked punchy since his chances of yellow shirted glory in Paris were destroyed in a poor first week of the race for him and I think he has a good chance to take this competition provided that a toxic combination of hot weather and bad form do not strike him again. Pinot always seems to hit some problem or other over 3 weeks so it should be an interesting journey to Paris for him. Majka is more reliable in this respect and we can expect him to be in breakaways on mountain stages hoovering up points. He is probably the betting man's choice for this jersey in what would be a poor compensation for the loss of Alberto Contador for outdoor showering team leader, Oleg Tinkov.
And so to close my report I will say a few words about where the race goes from here. For Sky its all about doing what was done before. They have the lead but its smaller this year. I don't think that changes very much. They will look to control the race and hope that Movistar benignly play along with it in a kind of truce until the Alps. They will likely get their wish as Movistar are a conservative team. Sky and Movistar together have the strength to control everyone else so guys like Dan Martin or Purito or Adam Yates or possibly Aru or Bardet who may want to try a cheeky attack have little chance of success. I see Sky allowing breaks every day, provided they contain the right people, as this will allow bonus seconds to be hoovered up by people with no chance of GC success. I think the race may come down to seconds and so this is an important tactical observation. You don't want a rival getting any bonus seconds. So we should expect to see some breakaway winners.
Of course, the exception to this tactic will be stage 12 which will be a straight up battle royal survival of the fittest. Everyone will know that the stage to Ventoux is a simple man against man fight. The strongest will survive. But the tactics here will be crucial. In 2013 Quintana went too early, with around 10kms still to go, and he was caught and passed by Froome. A similar win for Froome today would extend his lead to around a minute. Whilst that's not great enough to be completely comfortable it would be defendable (especially with a time trial to follow which could conceivably add another 30 seconds to it). So we will need to see if Quintana has improved tactically here. So far he has been stuck to Froome's back wheel like a bad smell so it may be that he simply intends to follow the yellow jersey wearer here. If he can do so it will put the pressure on Froome who will surely try to lose him and get himself a much more comfortable lead on this day. I do not see anyone but Froome or Quintana winning this stage. They are the two strongest riders in the race and the two best climbers. Added to that, this is one of the few stages in the race where a win can actually make a big GC difference since all the contenders will surely be scattered down the mountain. Riders who want to win the Tour will have to perform on stage 12.
I think that when we come to the second rest day in Berne that Froome and Quintana will be the top two. In which order I cannot say. In theory this next section of the race suits Froome slightly better. He will maybe increase his lead to around a minute but that's a very tentative guess. Quintana seems able to stay with the Briton so far. Perhaps the time trial will be what makes the difference and Froome should certainly try to make the most of this. I don't expect to see a large gap between the two which would mean we go into the Alps with everything to play for. That wouldn't be a bad outcome for race fans.
I'll be back with a further report on the Tour de France 2016 on rest day 2.
The move of the race so far, that affects the GC in any case, came on stage 8 into Bagneres de Luchon when Chris Froome stole over the top of the Peyresourde, the final climb of the day, and then just kept riding. The peloton were unprepared and caught napping. Ultimately Froome's gap may only have been 13 seconds at the line (to which he got a winner's bonus of 10 seconds added) but it showed intent on his part and created the gap which gives him the yellow jersey that others must now take from him. It needs to be remembered that so far in Froome's Tour De France career he has never lost the yellow jersey once he gained it. His closest rival in this race, so the pundits tell us, is Nairo Quintana. Quintana himself has never yet held the yellow jersey at all. But it is nevertheless right to be noted that this Tour is not like previous other Tours that have involved Froome, a man who has never finished the Tour lower than 2nd (and that was only because his team mate Wiggins was the designated leader). So what's the difference here?
I believe the main difference this time round is the course. Put simply, this course has been designed so as not to see the crucial killer gain that Froome was able to make previously. We have had three proper mountain stages so far, all in the Pyrenees. But its arguable that none of them were designed to be decisive. Christian Prudhomme, the ASO director of the race, has himself said in the last couple of days that Froome caught them all out with his attack on stage 8. They expected him to attack uphill like at Ax 3 Domaines or La Pierre St Martin in previous years. Instead, he attacked on a descent. But that comment is revealing because the ASO did not put such a climbing finish in the early part of this year's race. Arcalis, the Andorran finish of stage 9, is unlike those other climbs being both longer and shallower. Froome has not really had the terrain to do what he did before as yet. This is partly, we must acknowledge, by the ASO's design. In this context its entirely reasonable that the standings look different to former years. Its been designed to be more of a slow burning race and so the time gaps are smaller as we might expect.
As things stand, I don't think that Froome or Quintana will be overly concerned. Froome has yellow and his Sky team have control of the race which is how they like to play it. Quintana is within touching distance and will expect to get stronger the longer things go on. But this is a risky strategy from the Colombian who cannot rely on things being as they have been before. As already noted, the course is different this year. In the coming week we will have the properly decisive climb of Mont Ventoux and a 37kms time trial which will put further gaps between our contenders. And this is to ignore the possibility for a few stolen seconds here and there or something unforeseen. If Quintana and Movistar are really gambling everything on a stellar climbing performance in the Alps then it is a risk. Why, we might ask, did Quintana not attack on Arcalis yesterday? Was he able to? He had men in front of him but they weren't used. Will he come to regret not using opportunities like this? In the Tour de France the outcome is never known and must always be earned. We can be sure that Froome will look to build his lead across stages 12 and 13 and gaps that are currently seconds will grow larger between all the contenders.
And what of these contenders? After a strong performance in the first 9 days, and some attacks on Arcalis, Dan Martin is quoted as saying he is not a contender and that he regards Quintana and Froome as those who will battle for the title. Nevertheless, I think that Martin has been looking good recently and the third podium spot remains a realistic prospect for him. Britain's Adam Yates, white jersey wearer, is simply happy to be at the front and challenging. He really has nothing to lose and his attacking style is to be applauded but we should expect him to drop over time. Purito Rodriguez, fifth currently, is a terrible time triallist who is sure to accumulate losses against the big two. But he may yet have a stage win in him. Other realistic contenders near the top of the standings are Bardet, Mollema, Meintjes, Valverde, van Garderen and Aru. These guys are already around a minute back with bigger tests to come. Its reasonable to suggest that they will continue bleeding time against the bigger names. Crucially, I see all of these riders losing time in the time trial of stage 13, certainly to Froome and probably to Quintana as well. They will battle it out for the top ten placings. As for others like Barguil, Pinot and Porte, its quite likely that their ambitions are already done. Porte will hope to hold station and watch other riders who are currently ahead of him fall back behind him. As for the Frenchmen, they'd be better having a go for polka dots instead.
The course in the second phase of the race is worth mentioning at this point. Its split between GC relevant stages such as stages 12 and 13 and what those same contenders would hope are more benign, resting stages where others can have breakaway fun or contest a sprint. As already stated, the key stages here are 12 and 13, the mountain test of Ventoux which will widen cracks of time into gaping chasms, and the time trial in the Ardeche which, I think, will set in stone the possibilities for the rest of the race. Froome and Quintana, I think its quite likely, will be the top two by this point and it will become a race that is a simple head to head between the two times Tour winner and the former Giro winner from Colombia. But a note of caution here because the ASO have thrown a beast of a stage into the mix before we ride into Berne on stage 16. Stage 15 goes from Bourg-en-Bresse to Culoz over 6 classified climbs including the Hors categorie Grand Colombier. This will be a day similar to stage 8 in the Pyrenees in that it will be a test of attrition where controlling the race will be increasingly difficult with 15 days of racing in the legs. This stage remains a possible opportunity for someone to trip up if concentration is not at its maximum. But it will also rely on someone with balls of steel making an attack. As we have seen in the past, Nairo Quintana is not always that man. If he wants to win this race it is a stage like this where is has to be prepared to try and win the race. We can be sure that Chris Froome will be very happy if the Colombian just sits and follows again.
A brief look at other areas of the race. On the sprinting front it has mostly been about one man: Mark Cavendish. Cav was thought to have suffered in recent years as others got to his level and even beyond it. But this year he has proved that there's still life in the old dog yet with 3 sprint wins to date and a yellow jersey to complete his collection of leader's jerseys in the grand tours. The only other sprinter with a win is Marcel Kittel. Sagan has been sniffing around as expected on his way to what is sure to be another green jersey win but others such as Andre Greipel have been missing in action. Bryan Coquard has been making a nuisance of himself but, as yet, without success. Should Cav continue to stay in the race to Paris, and he should because on this evidence he has a chance of more wins on his way to Eddy Merckx's record of 34 Tour stage wins, then he will remain a favourite for the proper sprinter's stages and may yet get his fifth win on the Champs Elysees.
The mountain jersey looks to be a contest between Thibau Pinot, a man with shattered GC ambitions, and Rafal Majka, a former winner of the competition. Pinot has looked punchy since his chances of yellow shirted glory in Paris were destroyed in a poor first week of the race for him and I think he has a good chance to take this competition provided that a toxic combination of hot weather and bad form do not strike him again. Pinot always seems to hit some problem or other over 3 weeks so it should be an interesting journey to Paris for him. Majka is more reliable in this respect and we can expect him to be in breakaways on mountain stages hoovering up points. He is probably the betting man's choice for this jersey in what would be a poor compensation for the loss of Alberto Contador for outdoor showering team leader, Oleg Tinkov.
And so to close my report I will say a few words about where the race goes from here. For Sky its all about doing what was done before. They have the lead but its smaller this year. I don't think that changes very much. They will look to control the race and hope that Movistar benignly play along with it in a kind of truce until the Alps. They will likely get their wish as Movistar are a conservative team. Sky and Movistar together have the strength to control everyone else so guys like Dan Martin or Purito or Adam Yates or possibly Aru or Bardet who may want to try a cheeky attack have little chance of success. I see Sky allowing breaks every day, provided they contain the right people, as this will allow bonus seconds to be hoovered up by people with no chance of GC success. I think the race may come down to seconds and so this is an important tactical observation. You don't want a rival getting any bonus seconds. So we should expect to see some breakaway winners.
Of course, the exception to this tactic will be stage 12 which will be a straight up battle royal survival of the fittest. Everyone will know that the stage to Ventoux is a simple man against man fight. The strongest will survive. But the tactics here will be crucial. In 2013 Quintana went too early, with around 10kms still to go, and he was caught and passed by Froome. A similar win for Froome today would extend his lead to around a minute. Whilst that's not great enough to be completely comfortable it would be defendable (especially with a time trial to follow which could conceivably add another 30 seconds to it). So we will need to see if Quintana has improved tactically here. So far he has been stuck to Froome's back wheel like a bad smell so it may be that he simply intends to follow the yellow jersey wearer here. If he can do so it will put the pressure on Froome who will surely try to lose him and get himself a much more comfortable lead on this day. I do not see anyone but Froome or Quintana winning this stage. They are the two strongest riders in the race and the two best climbers. Added to that, this is one of the few stages in the race where a win can actually make a big GC difference since all the contenders will surely be scattered down the mountain. Riders who want to win the Tour will have to perform on stage 12.
I think that when we come to the second rest day in Berne that Froome and Quintana will be the top two. In which order I cannot say. In theory this next section of the race suits Froome slightly better. He will maybe increase his lead to around a minute but that's a very tentative guess. Quintana seems able to stay with the Briton so far. Perhaps the time trial will be what makes the difference and Froome should certainly try to make the most of this. I don't expect to see a large gap between the two which would mean we go into the Alps with everything to play for. That wouldn't be a bad outcome for race fans.
I'll be back with a further report on the Tour de France 2016 on rest day 2.