Post by sirrogermoore on Jul 18, 2016 17:05:10 GMT
And so we reach the second and final rest day of the Tour de France 2016. Chris Froome leads the race by 1.47 from Bauke Mollema with Adam Yates 2.45 back in third. Thereafter there is a duo of Movistar riders at 2.59 and 3.17 to fill out the top five. Its fair to say that the race so far has given us a scenario familiar in recent years as Froome sits atop the standings and others have minutes to claw back somehow in the final alpine tests.
The race so far is notable for a number of things. First amongst those has been Froome's willingness to freelance in the race and not stick to a pre-written script so much. He escaped on a descent for a stage win on stage 8, sprinted with Sagan for 2nd on stage 11 and ran up a mountain on stage 13. What all of this shows is that Froome is happy to take a chance and nibble chunks of time, something pretty much all of his rivals have NOT been willing to do. Most notable of those not willing to do this has been Nairo Quintana who has drawn criticism for his conservative approach. The only real place we have seen him attempt an attack was on Mont Ventoux but there he was pulled back by Wout Poels of Team Sky and then left when other breaks went. This naturally leads people to speculate as to why this has been the case. Is Quintana sick? Is he off form? Either way, it will take a major change in fortunes if the diminutive Colombian is to make a comeback from here. Its arguable that he was much stronger last year but even then he didn't get within a minute of eventual champion Froome. This year Froome's team seem stronger and Quintana seems weaker. Something has to give.
Bauke Mollema has impressed in the race so far, bridging from the GC group to the break of Froome and Porte on Mont Ventoux and putting in perhaps his best ever time trial in the Ardeche. His second place on current GC is very much on merit. We will have to see if he considers this reward enough or if he aims for one step higher on the finishing podium. Adam Yates has been similarly impressive sitting 3rd on GC and wearing the white jersey which he will now surely carry to Paris. For Yates an overall podium would surely be a massive achievement and he must wonder if its possible with greater luminaries of the sport, Quintana and Valverde, right behind him. He will look to hang in with the big boys and see how far it can take him. It seems likely he will earn a decent top ten position at the very least barring a complete capitulation.
Others expected to aim high at this Tour were the BMC duo of Richie Porte and Tejay van Garderen. The latter, it must be said, has been fairly anonymous. He has been unable to go with his Australian team mate on a number of climbs (such as Arcalis, Ventoux and the Lacets de Grand Colombier) and has now fallen behind him on GC even though Porte suffered a disaster on stage 2 with a mechanical that cost him 1.45. Porte himself has seemed more lively and one of the few who could follow Froome (even though he had a poor time trial). I expect Porte to continue heading up the standings whereas Tejay is more likely to go the opposite direction. Where this will leave Tejay in the future is anyone's guess.
The rest of the top ten is made up of Romain Bardet, Dan Martin and Fabio Aru. These riders have mostly put in steady performances and, in Martin's case, have faded from a good first part of the Tour. Aru and Bardet, in particular, are likely to want to enhance their positions in the standings and will be happy that we only have mountains left now in the Tour. I expect both to initiate attacks and probably more so than the likes of the Movistar pairing Valverde and Quintana. All of the riders in the top ten can still finish on the podium (even Aru in 10th is only three and a half minutes off Mollema) and an attack which takes decent time now might affect the final podium radically. But it all depends on if we have riders here who are prepared to risk everything and go all in or if we see a repeat of most of last year when everyone was happier to hold what they had. In turning to look at the remaining stages now we need to keep this in mind.
Stage 17 sees us climbing the Swiss Alps, primarily the Col de La Forclaz (Cat. 1) and the dam road to Emosson (HC) which form a mighty double whammy of a finish to stage 17 both having double digit gradients. I have thought from day one that this will be the stage where Quintana busts the race open. But will it be? Quintana has been known in the past to go early and gamble his Colombian diesel engine against all comers. The question is does he have the form to do this and does he have the balls to do this? If someone goes early on this stage it could be a classic toe to toe battle of all the contenders. But should we be skeptical and expect, instead, a slow grind in which no one dares to jump? On Ventoux, before the farce that no one wanted, Froome proved willing to attack and showed that he had a team that could protect him. Wout Poels, in particular, has proved to be a man that Froome's rivals must fear since they can't seem to get rid of him thus providing superb protection for his team leader. Should the GC remain together coming towards the top of the dam road to Emosson I would expect Froome to do similar to Ventoux again with an attack of his own. But he doesn't need to. He has the gains he needs to win. Others need to take them away again.
Stage 18 is an uphill time trial of 17kms and this, for my money, is Chris Froome's ace in the hole. Froome came second to Tom Dumoulin on the flat time trial of 37.5kms and was well clear of most of his rivals. He will start this time trial as the favourite for the win and thus all his opponents will face the prospect of losing even more time to the yellow jersey with only 2 stages left afterwards. Some of these rivals will surely need to put in the performances of their careers if they want to be on the podium in Paris because cracking now could mean goodnight to your chances. This stage could also be an ace in the hole for Froome because even if things have gone badly in the Swiss mountain stage he still has this as a get out of jail card.
Stage 19 is yet another alpine stage with two cat 1 climbs, the HC Montee de Bisanne and a cat 2 climb. The final climb is on the slopes of Mont Blanc at Le Bettex, a climb that Froome has actually won before in the Criterium du Dauphine. There is barely a meter of flat in this stage which will test endurance in the tired riders as much as climbing ability. The stage is short at 146kms and so could be conducted at break neck pace. I expect Froome and his Sky team to allow breakaways as they have been doing so far if only to snaffle up all the spare bonus seconds. As with stage 17, this stage very much depends on riders being prepared to attack in order to make gains. If they don't this could be another procession and put Froome one stage nearer victory.
The final stage of the race, for GC purposes, is stage 20 from Megeve to Morzine. This stage finishes on a downhill run and not a mountain finish and this is important. The final climb of the race will be the HC Col de Joux Plane which is almost 1000 meters of vertical climbing in just one mountain. Its a hard climb. But if you make it to the top together you should be able to stay with your rivals to the finish. Alternatively, if you haven't made it to the top in the right company you may need to dash like hell on a mad descent to catch them back. It promises to be exciting but not necessarily decisive. Lesser descenders such as the lightweight Quintana may see an advantage on the ascent withered away by fast descending chasers. Its just 12kms from the top of the Joux Plane to the finish but it could be the 12kms which determines your result.
And so its prediction time. It seems to me that Froome will win. But let's come up with some decent reasons why. Firstly, he's been here before and done it. So he knows what to expect and doesn't need to panic. Second, his team is the strongest he's had and even the weaker ones won him the race. Particularly troubling for others must be that Wout Poels stays with Froome deep into mountain stages. Its much easier for Froome if he doesn't need to chase attackers because the Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner can do it for him. This just sets him up for attacks of his own. Third, the time trial seems likely to give him even more time when its arguable that he already has enough anyway. Four, his opponents are going to be too scared of losing what they have to commit to the level necessary to put him in danger. If you're Mollema or Yates, Bardet or Porte, a Tour podium is a major achievement. If you have it why would you risk it with a suicidal attack? Five Movistar, the second strongest team in the race, are weak physically and mentally. They have already lost a rider in Jesus Herada and their only attack plan appears to be a weak Valverde attack that Froome's team mates pull back. In fact, I don't think Sky fear Valverde's climbing abilities at all.
But who will join Froome on the final podium. My choices are Bauke Mollema, who looks strong and prepared to give his all, and..... Well I'm not sure about the third spot. Its between Quintana, Valverde and Porte. I expect Yates to drop and the others to simply be not good enough.
The race so far is notable for a number of things. First amongst those has been Froome's willingness to freelance in the race and not stick to a pre-written script so much. He escaped on a descent for a stage win on stage 8, sprinted with Sagan for 2nd on stage 11 and ran up a mountain on stage 13. What all of this shows is that Froome is happy to take a chance and nibble chunks of time, something pretty much all of his rivals have NOT been willing to do. Most notable of those not willing to do this has been Nairo Quintana who has drawn criticism for his conservative approach. The only real place we have seen him attempt an attack was on Mont Ventoux but there he was pulled back by Wout Poels of Team Sky and then left when other breaks went. This naturally leads people to speculate as to why this has been the case. Is Quintana sick? Is he off form? Either way, it will take a major change in fortunes if the diminutive Colombian is to make a comeback from here. Its arguable that he was much stronger last year but even then he didn't get within a minute of eventual champion Froome. This year Froome's team seem stronger and Quintana seems weaker. Something has to give.
Bauke Mollema has impressed in the race so far, bridging from the GC group to the break of Froome and Porte on Mont Ventoux and putting in perhaps his best ever time trial in the Ardeche. His second place on current GC is very much on merit. We will have to see if he considers this reward enough or if he aims for one step higher on the finishing podium. Adam Yates has been similarly impressive sitting 3rd on GC and wearing the white jersey which he will now surely carry to Paris. For Yates an overall podium would surely be a massive achievement and he must wonder if its possible with greater luminaries of the sport, Quintana and Valverde, right behind him. He will look to hang in with the big boys and see how far it can take him. It seems likely he will earn a decent top ten position at the very least barring a complete capitulation.
Others expected to aim high at this Tour were the BMC duo of Richie Porte and Tejay van Garderen. The latter, it must be said, has been fairly anonymous. He has been unable to go with his Australian team mate on a number of climbs (such as Arcalis, Ventoux and the Lacets de Grand Colombier) and has now fallen behind him on GC even though Porte suffered a disaster on stage 2 with a mechanical that cost him 1.45. Porte himself has seemed more lively and one of the few who could follow Froome (even though he had a poor time trial). I expect Porte to continue heading up the standings whereas Tejay is more likely to go the opposite direction. Where this will leave Tejay in the future is anyone's guess.
The rest of the top ten is made up of Romain Bardet, Dan Martin and Fabio Aru. These riders have mostly put in steady performances and, in Martin's case, have faded from a good first part of the Tour. Aru and Bardet, in particular, are likely to want to enhance their positions in the standings and will be happy that we only have mountains left now in the Tour. I expect both to initiate attacks and probably more so than the likes of the Movistar pairing Valverde and Quintana. All of the riders in the top ten can still finish on the podium (even Aru in 10th is only three and a half minutes off Mollema) and an attack which takes decent time now might affect the final podium radically. But it all depends on if we have riders here who are prepared to risk everything and go all in or if we see a repeat of most of last year when everyone was happier to hold what they had. In turning to look at the remaining stages now we need to keep this in mind.
Stage 17 sees us climbing the Swiss Alps, primarily the Col de La Forclaz (Cat. 1) and the dam road to Emosson (HC) which form a mighty double whammy of a finish to stage 17 both having double digit gradients. I have thought from day one that this will be the stage where Quintana busts the race open. But will it be? Quintana has been known in the past to go early and gamble his Colombian diesel engine against all comers. The question is does he have the form to do this and does he have the balls to do this? If someone goes early on this stage it could be a classic toe to toe battle of all the contenders. But should we be skeptical and expect, instead, a slow grind in which no one dares to jump? On Ventoux, before the farce that no one wanted, Froome proved willing to attack and showed that he had a team that could protect him. Wout Poels, in particular, has proved to be a man that Froome's rivals must fear since they can't seem to get rid of him thus providing superb protection for his team leader. Should the GC remain together coming towards the top of the dam road to Emosson I would expect Froome to do similar to Ventoux again with an attack of his own. But he doesn't need to. He has the gains he needs to win. Others need to take them away again.
Stage 18 is an uphill time trial of 17kms and this, for my money, is Chris Froome's ace in the hole. Froome came second to Tom Dumoulin on the flat time trial of 37.5kms and was well clear of most of his rivals. He will start this time trial as the favourite for the win and thus all his opponents will face the prospect of losing even more time to the yellow jersey with only 2 stages left afterwards. Some of these rivals will surely need to put in the performances of their careers if they want to be on the podium in Paris because cracking now could mean goodnight to your chances. This stage could also be an ace in the hole for Froome because even if things have gone badly in the Swiss mountain stage he still has this as a get out of jail card.
Stage 19 is yet another alpine stage with two cat 1 climbs, the HC Montee de Bisanne and a cat 2 climb. The final climb is on the slopes of Mont Blanc at Le Bettex, a climb that Froome has actually won before in the Criterium du Dauphine. There is barely a meter of flat in this stage which will test endurance in the tired riders as much as climbing ability. The stage is short at 146kms and so could be conducted at break neck pace. I expect Froome and his Sky team to allow breakaways as they have been doing so far if only to snaffle up all the spare bonus seconds. As with stage 17, this stage very much depends on riders being prepared to attack in order to make gains. If they don't this could be another procession and put Froome one stage nearer victory.
The final stage of the race, for GC purposes, is stage 20 from Megeve to Morzine. This stage finishes on a downhill run and not a mountain finish and this is important. The final climb of the race will be the HC Col de Joux Plane which is almost 1000 meters of vertical climbing in just one mountain. Its a hard climb. But if you make it to the top together you should be able to stay with your rivals to the finish. Alternatively, if you haven't made it to the top in the right company you may need to dash like hell on a mad descent to catch them back. It promises to be exciting but not necessarily decisive. Lesser descenders such as the lightweight Quintana may see an advantage on the ascent withered away by fast descending chasers. Its just 12kms from the top of the Joux Plane to the finish but it could be the 12kms which determines your result.
And so its prediction time. It seems to me that Froome will win. But let's come up with some decent reasons why. Firstly, he's been here before and done it. So he knows what to expect and doesn't need to panic. Second, his team is the strongest he's had and even the weaker ones won him the race. Particularly troubling for others must be that Wout Poels stays with Froome deep into mountain stages. Its much easier for Froome if he doesn't need to chase attackers because the Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner can do it for him. This just sets him up for attacks of his own. Third, the time trial seems likely to give him even more time when its arguable that he already has enough anyway. Four, his opponents are going to be too scared of losing what they have to commit to the level necessary to put him in danger. If you're Mollema or Yates, Bardet or Porte, a Tour podium is a major achievement. If you have it why would you risk it with a suicidal attack? Five Movistar, the second strongest team in the race, are weak physically and mentally. They have already lost a rider in Jesus Herada and their only attack plan appears to be a weak Valverde attack that Froome's team mates pull back. In fact, I don't think Sky fear Valverde's climbing abilities at all.
But who will join Froome on the final podium. My choices are Bauke Mollema, who looks strong and prepared to give his all, and..... Well I'm not sure about the third spot. Its between Quintana, Valverde and Porte. I expect Yates to drop and the others to simply be not good enough.
